Risk Assessment

Risk assessments (RA) support managed movement and permitting of animals and animal products during disease outbreaks.

Two proactive risk assessments evaluated the risk raw milk transport from an FMD infected, but undetected, Grade A dairy farm to further processing poses to FMD spread. Full reports, executive summaries and fact sheets are below.

  1. The full Baseline Risk Assessment (referred to as Baseline RA) identified areas of risk that could result in further spread of FMDv from an infected but undetected dairy premises through transport of raw milk to processing under current industry standards, with no additional mitigations or restrictions in place. (Baseline RA Executive Summary)
  2. The full Biosecurity Performance Standards (BPS) Risk Assessment (referred to as BPS RA) evaluated the effectiveness of the BPS measures to address and mitigate the risk pathways identified in the Baseline RA. (BPS RA Executive Summary)
    • CONCLUSION: The risk of FMDv contamination of a susceptible farm by contaminated milk and environmental media through the transport of raw milk into, within, and outside of a Control Area to processing is negligible to moderate provided the Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO) guidance, state regulations, and the Biosecurity Performance Standards (BPS) for Raw Milk Collection and Transport are strictly followed.

Fact Sheets:

  • Risk from Bioaerosols during Raw Milk Movement
  • Modeling FMD Viral Concentrations in Milk from Infected but Undetected Dairy Herds
  • Evaluating Environmental FMD Virus Concentrations from Infected but Undetected Dairy Herd

University of Minnesota staff located at the USDA-APHIS-VS Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health completed the proactive risk assessments.